Mag4 week is Cloud and CapEx. Microsoft and Meta print Wednesday; Apple and Amazon Thursday.
Microsoft and Meta report on Wednesday, July 29. Apple and Amazon follow on Thursday, July 30. Alphabet already opened the mega-cap AI window on July 22 — this is the rest of the Mag4 block in one pass.
The frame for the week is not four EPS headlines. It is cloud demand, CapEx, and data-center capacity: who is still accelerating, who already guided a wall of spend, and whether the filed receipts (RPO, AWS growth, CapEx dollars, third-party cloud commitments) still support the build.
Research, not investment advice. Figures below are from SEC-filed Exhibit 99.1 releases and Form 10-Qs unless labeled otherwise (retrieved via Aether / EDGAR).
Calendar
| Company | Report | Last full print in the books |
|---|---|---|
| Microsoft (fiscal Q4 / FY2026) | Wed Jul 29 | Q3 FY2026 ended Mar 31 (Apr 29 release) |
| Meta (calendar Q2) | Wed Jul 29 | Q1 2026 (Apr 29 release) |
| Apple (fiscal Q3) | Thu Jul 30 | Fiscal Q2 ended Mar 28 (Apr 30 release) |
| Amazon (calendar Q2) | Thu Jul 30 | Q1 2026 (Apr 29 release) |
The CapEx and cloud scoreboard (already filed)
| Company | Demand receipt (latest quarter) | CapEx / build signal already on file |
|---|---|---|
| Microsoft | Microsoft Cloud $54.5B (+29%); Azure +40%; commercial RPO $627B (+99%) | Additions to PPE $30.9B in Q3; $80.1B YTD through Mar 31 |
| Amazon | AWS $37.6B (+28% — fastest in 15 quarters); AWS OI $14.2B | CEO: expect ~$200B CapEx in 2026; TTM FCF crushed by AI PPE |
| Meta | Revenue $56.3B (+33%); OI $22.9B, 41% margin | FY2026 CapEx guide raised to $125–145B; Q1 CapEx $19.84B; $237.67B non-cancelable commitments (mostly third-party cloud) |
| Apple | Revenue $111.2B (+17%); Services $31.0B (record); R&D up hard | PPE spend is not the hyperscaler story — $4.3B PPE in fiscal Q2; thesis is Services + on-device AI on a 2.5B+ device base |
That table is the week. Three hyperscaler-style builders and one device/services cash engine that leases and buys compute rather than posting AWS-scale CapEx.
Microsoft — Cloud and RPO first; CapEx is the silent line
Microsoft’s fiscal year ends June 30, so Wednesday is a full-year print, not a mid-year check-in.
Last quarter (Q3 FY2026, ended Mar 31)
From the April 29 Exhibit 99.1:
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $82.9B (+18%; +15% CC) |
| Operating income | $38.4B (+20%) |
| Diluted EPS | $4.27 (+23% GAAP) |
| Microsoft Cloud | $54.5B (+29%; +25% CC) |
| Azure and other cloud services | +40% (+39% CC) |
| Intelligent Cloud | $34.7B (+30%) |
| Commercial RPO | $627B (+99%) |
| AI business (CEO run-rate quote) | >$37B annual run-rate, +123% YoY |
| Additions to property and equipment (cash flow) | $30.9B in the quarter ($80.1B nine months) |
The demand side is already extreme: Cloud at $54.5B with RPO nearly doubled year over year. The CapEx side shows up cleanly in cash flow — PPE additions roughly doubled versus the year-ago quarter ($16.7B). Guidance lives on the call, not in the press release (“Business Outlook”).
Past year (FY2025, closed Jul 30, 2025)
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| FY2025 revenue | $281.7B (+15%) |
| FY2025 operating income | $128.5B (+17%) |
| Q4 FY2025 Microsoft Cloud | $46.7B (+27%) |
| Azure for FY2025 (CEO quote) | Surpassed $75B, +34% |
| Q4 Azure and other cloud services | +39% |
| FY2025 additions to PPE | $64.6B |
Trajectory into Wednesday: Cloud grew from a $46.7B Q4 FY2025 run-rate into a $54.5B Q3 FY2026 print; Azure stayed in the high-30s / 40% growth band; PPE spend stepped from ~$65B for FY2025 into an $80B nine-month pace. Fiscal Q4 either extends that or shows the first hard deceleration while CapEx stays hot.
What grades Microsoft on Jul 29
- Azure growth — hold near Q3’s ~40%, or step down?
- Microsoft Cloud — still high-20s growth on a larger base?
- Commercial RPO — still compounding after $627B / +99%?
- PPE / CapEx commentary — does the FY CapEx path stay consistent with the $30B+/quarter build?
- AI run-rate — second print after the >$37B claim.
Live multiples: MSFT valuation.
Meta — Ads fund it; CapEx and third-party cloud are the debate
Meta is not a public-cloud landlord. It is an ads machine buying and leasing an enormous compute fleet. The Q1 print already raised the CapEx ceiling mid-year.
Last quarter (Q1 2026)
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $56.31B (+33%; +29% CC) |
| Income from operations | $22.87B (+30%) |
| Operating margin | 41% (flat YoY) |
| Family of Apps revenue | $55.91B (+33%) |
| CapEx (incl. finance-lease principal) | $19.84B |
| Free cash flow | $12.39B |
| Q2 2026 revenue guide | $58–61B |
| FY2026 CapEx guide | $125–145B (raised from $115–135B) |
| FY2026 total expenses guide | $162–169B (unchanged) |
CFO commentary tied the CapEx raise to higher component pricing and, to a lesser extent, additional data center costs for future-year capacity. The 10-Q adds the contractual footprint: $237.67B of non-cancelable commitments as of March 31, 2026 — “mostly related to third-party cloud capacity arrangements” plus servers, network, data centers, and Reality Labs hardware, with about $42.25B due in 2026 and $47.65B in 2027.
Past year (FY2025)
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| FY2025 revenue | $200.97B (+22%) |
| FY2025 income from operations | $83.28B (+20%), 41% margin |
| Q4 2025 revenue | $59.89B (+24%) |
| FY2025 CapEx (incl. finance leases) | $72.22B |
| Opening 2026 CapEx guide (Jan 28) | $115–135B |
In one winter Meta went from ~$72B of CapEx to a mid-year guide that can clear $145B. That is the entire Meta AI-infra argument in two filings.
What grades Meta on Jul 29
- Revenue vs $58–61B guide — and whether ad price × impressions still look like Q1’s +12% / +19% mix.
- CapEx — still on a $125–145B year, or another raise / mix shift into cloud leases?
- Operating margin — can ~41% survive infrastructure and third-party cloud costs?
- Expense path — still inside $162–169B while CapEx runs hot?
- OI vs 2025 — management still expects 2026 operating income above 2025.
Live multiples: META valuation.
Amazon — AWS re-accelerated; the $200B CapEx year is the backdrop
Amazon is the cleanest “cloud growth vs CapEx burn” twin to Microsoft inside this block.
Last quarter (Q1 2026)
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Net sales | $181.5B (+17%; +15% ex-FX) |
| AWS sales | $37.6B (+28%) |
| AWS operating income | $14.2B (vs $11.5B) |
| Consolidated operating income | $23.9B (vs $18.4B) |
| TTM operating cash flow | $148.5B (+30%) |
| TTM free cash flow | $1.2B (vs $25.9B a year earlier) |
| Q1 purchases of PPE | $44.2B |
| Q2 2026 net sales guide | $194–199B (+16% to +19%) |
| Q2 2026 operating income guide | $20–24B |
Jassy’s Q1 quote: AWS at 28% was the fastest growth in 15 quarters, on a large base; the chips business topped a $20B revenue run-rate. Capacity color in the same release: OpenAI commitment for ~2 GW of Trainium (ramping 2027); Anthropic up to 5 GW of Trainium generations; 2.1M+ AI chips landed in 12 months. Net income was flattered by $16.8B of pre-tax gains on the Anthropic investment — grade the quarter on AWS and operating income, not EPS.
Past year (FY2025 / Q4 print)
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| FY2025 net sales | $716.9B (+12%) |
| FY2025 AWS | $128.7B (+20%) |
| FY2025 operating income | $80.0B |
| Q4 AWS | $35.6B (+24% — then fastest in 13 quarters) |
| TTM FCF at year-end | $11.2B (vs $38.2B), on +$50.7B YoY PPE |
| 2026 CapEx (CEO quote, Feb 5) | Expect to invest about $200B |
Q1 already beat the company’s own Q1 sales guide range ($173.5–178.5B) and showed AWS accelerating from +20% for FY2025 → +24% in Q4 → +28% in Q1. Thursday asks whether that re-acceleration holds while CapEx stays on a ~$200B annual path.
What grades Amazon on Jul 30
- AWS growth — still mid-to-high 20s after +28%?
- AWS operating income — still expanding in dollars while infrastructure spend rises?
- Sales vs $194–199B and OI vs $20–24B (Prime Day assumed in Q2).
- CapEx / FCF — is the $200B year still the base case on the call?
- Ignore Anthropic mark-to-market noise in net income; use segment OI.
Live multiples: AMZN valuation.
Apple — not a hyperscaler CapEx print; Services and the device base are the infra angle
Apple does not report an AWS line. For a Cloud / CapEx / data-center week it is the contrast case: on-device AI, Services (including cloud services inside Services), and a CapEx line that is an order of magnitude smaller than Meta or Amazon.
Last two quarters
| Line | Fiscal Q1 (ended Dec 27, 2025) | Fiscal Q2 (ended Mar 28, 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $143.8B (+16%) | $111.2B (+17%) |
| Diluted EPS | $2.84 (+19%) | $2.01 (+22%) |
| Services | $30.0B (record) | $31.0B (record) |
| Products | — | $80.2B |
| Operating income | $50.9B | $35.9B |
| Active devices (Q1 CEO quote) | >2.5B | — |
| PPE cash outflow (10-Q) | — | $4.3B in Q2 |
| Capital return color (Q2) | — | $100B additional repurchase authorization; dividend to $0.27 |
Q2 10-Q says Services growth was driven by advertising, the App Store, and cloud services. R&D for the quarter was $11.4B (vs $8.6B) — that is where Apple’s AI spend shows up more than PPE. Apple typically guides on the call, not in the Exhibit 99.1 body.
What grades Apple on Jul 30
- Services — third straight record, or a pause?
- iPhone / Greater China — Q2 already showed Greater China at $20.5B; does the install base story hold into the summer quarter?
- Gross margin — Q2 total GM was 49.3%; Services GM 76.7%.
- Any AI / Private Cloud Compute capacity color on the call — qualitative, but it is the bridge to the Mag4 CapEx week.
- Do not grade Apple on hyperscaler CapEx dollars; the comparable is cash generation and Services mix.
Live multiples: AAPL valuation.
One scorecard for Jul 29–30
Wednesday (MSFT + META)
- Azure / Microsoft Cloud growth and RPO vs the Q3 bar (+40% / +29% / $627B).
- Meta revenue vs $58–61B and CapEx still inside $125–145B.
- Whether Meta’s margin can stay near 41% while third-party cloud commitments stay enormous.
Thursday (AMZN + AAPL)
- AWS growth after +28% — hold or fade — against the ~$200B CapEx year.
- Amazon OI vs $20–24B guide (clean of Anthropic gains).
- Apple Services trajectory and any on-device / cloud-services commentary — the non-hyperscaler control sample.
If Microsoft and Amazon both show cloud still accelerating while CapEx guides hold, the AI-infra complex keeps its demand receipt. If cloud decelerates while Meta/Amazon CapEx paths stay maxed, the week becomes a duration-of-spend debate — the same tension Alphabet already put on the table.
Stress-test growth and margin assumptions in the DCF calculator.
Primary sources
Microsoft — Q3 FY2026 Exhibit 99.1
(accession 0001193125-26-191457, Apr 29, 2026);
FY2025 / Q4 Exhibit 99.1
(accession 0000950170-25-100226, Jul 30, 2025);
Form 10-Q period ended Mar 31, 2026
(accession 0001193125-26-191507).
Meta — Q1 2026 Exhibit 99.1
(accession 0001628280-26-028364, Apr 29, 2026);
Q4 & FY2025 Exhibit 99.1
(accession 0001628280-26-003832, Jan 28, 2026);
Form 10-Q period ended Mar 31, 2026
(accession 0001628280-26-028526) — CapEx outlook and $237.67B commitments.
Amazon — Q1 2026 Exhibit 99.1
(accession 0001018724-26-000012, Apr 29, 2026);
Q4 2025 / FY Exhibit 99.1
(accession 0001018724-26-000002, Feb 5, 2026) — includes ~$200B 2026 CapEx quote;
Form 10-Q period ended Mar 31, 2026
(accession 0001018724-26-000014).
Apple — Fiscal Q2 2026 Exhibit 99.1
(accession 0000320193-26-000011, Apr 30, 2026);
Fiscal Q1 2026 Exhibit 99.1
(accession 0000320193-26-000005, Jan 29, 2026);
Form 10-Q period ended Mar 28, 2026
(accession 0000320193-26-000013).
Filing excerpts retrieved and cross-checked via Aether’s SEC index and EDGAR.
Research, not investment advice.